Degrees of Risk: Defining a Risk Management Framework For Climate Security
The implications of current security analysis are clear: unless climate change is limited to levels where its impacts can be managed effectively, and unless successful adaptation programs are implemented, there will be major threats to national and international security. This report addresses the need for countries to develop a comprehensive risk management approach to climate change.
In the face of a serious security threat, and partial information, this report proposes taking some hard won lessons from the security community and adopting a rigorous risk management approach for climate change. The report suggests a risk management strategy that follows the a three tiered framework: (1) Aim to stay below 2°C (3.6°F) of warming; (2) Build and budget assuming 3-4°C (5.4-7.2°F) of warming; and (3)contingency plan for 5-7°C (9-12.6°F) of warming. It also provides ten recommendations for countries launching a risk management approach.