On December 1, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued a proposed rule to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve fuel economy for light-duty vehicles for Model Years (MY) 2017-2025 (76 Fed. Reg. 74854,75420). The agencies announced the proposed standards in a Supplemental Notice of Intent (NOI) in late July, and originally hoped to issue the proposed rule by late September.
NHTSA’s proposed corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards would require an average fleet-wide basis of 49.6 mpg by 2025, while EPA’s proposed standards would require lower fleet-wide emissions of carbon dioxide, equivalent to 54.5 mpg if this level were achieved solely through improvements in fuel efficiency. The combined standards under the proposed rule will achieve an average fleet-wide fuel efficiency of 54.5 mpg by 2025, an increase of roughly five percent annually for passenger cars. Light trucks will have a lower target of 44 mpg, and passenger cars will have a higher goal of 62 mpg by 2025. The combined standards would reduce the amount of GHG emissions by half for MY 2025 light-duty vehicles, compared to MY 2010 vehicles, and EPA estimates that the standards will save four billion barrels of oil over the lifetime of MY 2017-2025 vehicles. CAFE standards are currently set at just over 27 mpg, and are scheduled to reach 35.2 mpg by 2016.
NHTSA has the authority to establish CAFE standards under the Energy Policy Conservation Act, and EPA has the authority to regulate carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas as pollutants under Massachusetts v. Environmental Protection Agency, (549 U.S. 497 (2007)). EPA and NHTSA have worked closely with the California Air Resources Board (ARB), and ARB recently released a proposal for MY 2017-2025 emissions standards that are consistent with the proposed national standards. California has unique authority under the Clean Air Act to seek a waiver to implement more stringent air pollution standards for motor vehicles, and EPA granted California a waiver for GHG regulations for MY 2009-2016 light duty vehicles on July 8, 2009 (74 Fed. Reg. 32,744). At the same time California worked with EPA and NHTSA to develop a single nationwide federal standard for MY 2012-2016, and subsequently accepted the federal standards that were finalized May 7, 2010 (Joint Light-Duty Vehicle GHG Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards, 75 Fed. Reg. 25,324).
NHTSA and EPA will jointly hold three public hearings in January to accept comments to the rulemaking documents, and NHTSA will also accept comments to the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) at these hearings. Comments must be received no later than 60 days after the December 1, 2011 publication in the Federal Register. A final rule is expected by July 31, 2012.
On December 7, the California Air Resources Board (ARB) published an Advanced Clean Car package of regulations to be considered for adoption at the ARB meeting on January 26, 2012. The package, containing amendments to California’s Low Emission Vehicle and Zero Emission Vehicle regulations, will require car manufacturers to offer for sale in California an increasing percentage of low emission and zero emission vehicles by 2025, and are designed to help the state achieve its goal of reducing GHG emissions by 80% by 2050.
The proposed Low Emission Vehicle (LEV III) amendments are intended to reduce fleet-wide average emissions to super ultra-low-emission vehicle (SULEV) levels by 2025, and to raise the full useful life durability requirement from 120,000 to 150,000 miles. The LEVIII proposal includes more stringent particulate matter (PM) standards for light- and medium-duty vehicles, which will reduce the health effects and premature deaths associated with these emissions. In concert with the LEV III requirements are proposed GHG emission standards, which closely align with the recent proposed federal GHG emissions and CAFE standards. ARB estimates that its proposed GHG standards would reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 34% compared to 2016 levels, and by 52 million tons by 2025—the equivalent of taking ten million cars off the road.
The package includes amendments to the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) regulation, which will further reduce the environmental impact of light-duty vehicles through increasing the number of ZEVs in the California fleet. ARB estimates that the regulation will result in 1.4 million ZEVs or TZEVs (transitional zero emission vehicle, most commonly a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle) on the road by 2025, and also contains a provision that allows automakers that over comply with the national GHG emission requirements across their fleet to offset their ZEV requirements.
The proposed regulations also contain a provision that will require the construction of hydrogen fueling stations to support the commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. ARB estimates that the advanced technologies used to achieve the new smog and greenhouse gas standards will increase a new vehicle’s price in 2025 by about $1,900, but will be offset by $6,000 in fuel savings over the life of the car. It is estimated that these measures will reduce annual fuel costs to operate a car by an average of 25%, with an overall cumulative savings of $22 billion by 2025.
The proposed LEV III and ZEV amendments will be considered at a two-day meeting of the Board, beginning January 26, 2012, at 9am PST.